A team of researchers at the University of Tokyo have figured out a way to make money legally from online bookies. Their method is fairly straightforward, assuming that bookies themselves are good at setting odds and that the prices they offer are an accurate reflection of the probabilities of a win, draw or loss. They then build a web crawler that gathered odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world and looked for outliers in the results, and then worked out whether a bet would favor them or not.
- Using their system, they analyzed 479,440 soccer games played and were paid out 44% of the time for a a yield of 3.5% (at $50 per bet, that’s $98,865 in profit)
- Then they tested on live odds to the run up of games and were paid off 47.6% of the time for a 9.9% return
- Finally, they tried their system by placing real bets and were paid of 47.2% of the time for an 8.5% return
Read the full article on MIT Technology Review